Freshwater Biology

Freshwater salinization is of increasing concern for integrity and functioning of freshwater habitats worldwide. Experiments so far often have studied drastic salt additions, while gradient designs have been performed less commonly. We tested the effect of freshwater salinization in a mesocosm exposing the plankton community of the oligotrophic Lake Lunz, Austria, to a four-fold salinization gradient (control, 0.2, 1, a 5 ppt salt). Salinity was manipulated in a factorial design with enrichment, with 10 g L-1 and 30 g L-1 phosphorus, resulting in 8 treatments with 3 replicates each. We followed the effects of salinization on diversity, community composition and resource use over 36 days. Community composition was assessed by amplicon sequencing, Diversity loss and community turnover followed upon salt addition. All levels of salinization caused pronounced changes in community composition, with 5 ppt causing the most drastic changes. Salinization caused trophic downgrading by kicking out especially protistan consumers and rotifers, while some green algae and chrysophytes were especially tolerant, resulting in reduced phylogenetic and functional diversity with increasing salinization. In line with reduced top down control, salinization affected temporal variability in chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and resource use (RUE), with higher salinity causing more extreme fluctuations in chl-a and RUE. Enrichment overall aggravated salinization, enhancing temporal turnover and temporal fluctuations in resource use.

Quagga mussels (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis) are ecosystem engineers that can alter nutrient cycling, benthic-pelagic coupling, and food-web structure in deep lakes. Although their invasion trajectories are well documented in the Laurentian Great Lakes in North America, depth-specific population dynamics remain poorly resolved in recently invaded European perialpine lakes. We analyzed five annual lake-wide surveys (2021-2025) from 54 stations spanning 2.4-253 m depth in Lake Constance to quantify changes in quagga mussel density, biomass, and shell-length distribution. Contrary to expectations of lake-wide exponential growth, shallow-water populations (< 20 m) showed no significant increase during the study period and appear to have reached carrying capacity before monitoring began. In contrast, densities increased monotonically at intermediate depths (40-125 m), indicating ongoing expansion into deeper strata. Mean shell length declined with depth, and size distributions in shallow waters shifted toward larger individuals, consistent with a transition from active recruitment to somatic growth of established mussels. Compared with the Laurentian Great Lakes, Lake Constance already has substantially higher shallow-water biomass, whereas deeper invasion trajectories are broadly similar. These results show that quagga mussel invasion in deep European lakes can combine rapid littoral saturation with slower profundal expansion, complicating direct transfer of predictions from the Great Lakes. Continued depth-stratified monitoring will be essential for anticipating future ecosystem effects in perialpine lakes.

Lake Constance is a pre-Alpine, monomictic, oligotrophic lake situated at the southern end of Germany composed of two main water bodies: deep, oligotrophic Upper Lake Constance (ULC) and the shallow, more mesotrophic Lower Lake Constance (LLC). To date, no sequencing-based study exists of the seasonal succession of the microbial plankton in Lake Constance. Over one-year, microbial plankton communities were sampled biweekly from the top 20 m of the water column in both sites and separated into nanoplankton (NP) and picoplankton (PP). Communities were analysed using rDNA amplicon sequencing: NP samples were analysed by 18S rDNA, and PP samples by 18S and 16S rDNA sequencing. Temporal community diversity was compared between sites and the effect of two major environmental perturbations, winter vertical mixing in ULC and oxygen depletion of the bottom-water layer in LLC, on the community was examined. Despite strong environmental contrasts, microbial plankton communities exhibited conserved seasonal temporal dynamics across basins. In contrast, pronounced compositional shifts occurred during mixing and oxygen depletion events. Approximately 20% of detected taxa were positively associated with these events, with log fold changes reaching 9.82, reflecting rare or undetectable taxa outside these periods. Taxa favoured by these perturbations commonly exhibited high metabolic flexibility, including mixotrophy, fermentation, or anaerobic respiration, or possessed functional traits conferring tolerance to altered redox and mixing regimes. Our results suggest that the temporal dynamics of freshwater microbial plankton communities are driven by deterministic processes and highlight the profound impact of large, and less known, environmental changes on these communities.

The global study of freshwater clams in the genus Corbicula is frequently confounded by invasive androgenetic lineages that experience mitochondrial DNA capture and clonal propagation. In contrast, the endemic Corbicula of Sulawesi's ancient lakes reproduce sexually, offering a uniquely reliable system for mitochondrial population genetics. This study provides the first population-genetic framework for two endemic species, Corbicula possoensis (Lake Poso) and C. linduensis (Lake Lindu), using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) marker. We analysed 90 newly generated COI sequences from C. possoensis (six stations) and C. linduensis (three stations), integrated with reference sequences from GenBank, to assess genetic diversity, population structure, and phylogeographic patterns. Hierarchical AMOVA revealed deep divergence between the two lakes ({Phi}_CT = 0.607), consistent with prolonged independent isolation rather than a single shared vicariance event, as the two species do not form a sister pair in the phylogeny. Within Lake Poso, C. possoensis exhibited exceptionally high genetic diversity (24 haplotypes; h = 0.876; {pi} = 0.016) and pronounced micro-geographic structuring into three phylogeographic zones (North: Tentena and Siuri; East: Tando Nceppo and Busogo Beach; Southwest: Bancea and Pendolo), each characterised by distinct haplogroups. Remarkably, the maximum divergence between zones (K2P = 2.33%) approached the interspecific distance between C. possoensis and C. linduensis (K2P = 2.42%), indicating that within-lake mitochondrial divergence has reached near-interspecific levels. Conversely, C. linduensis displayed near-panmixia and extreme genetic depauperation (3 haplotypes; h = 0.246; {pi} = 0.0004), indicating long-term demographic stasis within a restricted habitat. The deep phylogeographic zonation in C. possoensis suggests that its discrete populations should be treated as separate Management Units (MUs) in conservation planning to preserve locally adapted gene complexes, whereas the severely depauperate gene pool of C. linduensis renders it critically vulnerable to environmental disturbance and invasive species, warranting urgent IUCN Red List assessment. To validate these mitochondrial boundaries and inform future conservation strategies, multi-marker and genome-wide reassessments are strongly recommended.

Understanding the genetic structure of keystone species within river networks is essential for effective conservation and management. While population differentiation of anadromous species often occurs between river systems, less research has been conducted on differentiation within rivers with smaller catchment areas. In this study, we investigated the population genetic structure of wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) across the small-scale river Ronne [a] system in southernmost Sweden using Restriction-site Associated DNA sequencing (RADseq). Although the Admixture analysis did not detect clearly defined genetic clusters, significant pairwise FST values and DAPC revealed emerging population differentiation among the Ronne [a] tributaries. The observed patterns are consistent with a system characterized by connectivity, where genetic flow is present but can be reduced by behavioral and ecological factors such as spawning homing behavior and selective movements. These findings suggest that, despite overall connectivity, Atlantic salmon populations in the Ronne [a] catchment area may function as partially independent sub-populations. This highlights the importance of conservation and management strategies in fragmented river systems to consider population genetic structure to support resilient salmon populations under ongoing anthropogenic pressures.

Downstream migration and sea entry are periods of high mortality for sea trout smolts and migration timing is a critical aspect of survival. We aimed to investigate migration timing of PIT-tagged sea trout smolts across a latitudinal gradient in five freshwater systems across Europe: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, France and Portugal. In two systems, smolt migration was further examined to assess a) differences in sex, body size and condition between autumn and spring migrants; b) the influence of spatial origin within the stream; and c) relationships between individual body size and migration date. Tagged smolts were not detected migrating in the Portuguese watershed. Spring migration timing differed significantly between watersheds in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and France. Generally, there was a trend of earlier migration at lower latitudes. Autumn vs spring migration was examined in Gudso-Denmark. Autumn migrants were larger in both length and mass, with no differences in sex ratios or body condition. Fish originating from an upstream site were more likely to migrate in the autumn compared to the spring and vice versa. Size dependent migration was found in the Swedish system, Haga [a]-Sweden, with larger individuals migrating earlier in the spring than smaller individuals. Outward-migrating smolts were also more likely to originate from a downstream site than an upstream site. Overall, these results show both large-scale geographic and fine-scale individual influences on migration timing. Given that climate change may have large impacts on migration patterns in sea trout, understanding variability in migratory patterns across a latitudinal gradient is an important tool for predicting responses to environmental changes.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to be a powerful tool in blue carbon science for characterizing and quantifying the contribution of marine macrophytes; but its complex, dynamic relationship with bulk biomass is poorly understood. Here, we used eDNA to examine the degradation dynamics of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) in muddy, anaerobic marine sediment. This involved three 16-week incubations; with additions of lyophilized sugar kelp alone, a mix of lyophilized marine macrophytes including sugar kelp, and sugar kelp holdfasts buried in sediment. We used species-specific digital polymerase chain reaction assays for mitochondrial, chloroplast and nuclear markers, and metabarcoding for the 16S and 18S ribosomal RNA genes. In the former two incubations, all sugar kelp eDNA markers showed rapid log exponential declines (up to 98-99%) to asymptotes greater than the unamended controls, even as part of a more complex mix of macrophytes. In contrast, for the buried kelp holdfasts, sugar kelp eDNA increased to an asymptote (by up to [~]15X), which may be reflective of the different nature of added biomass. Overall, we demonstrate substantial preservation of environmental DNA and total organic carbon under anaerobic conditions, and the potential to use environmental DNA to quantify biomass in a blue carbon context.

Fistulobalanus albicostatus Pilsbry, 1916 (Thoracica: Balanidae) is a tropical to temperate species distributed in the NW Pacific. The previously known northernmost record of this species in Japan was from Aomori Prefecture, at the northern end of Honshu Island, Japan. However, field surveys conducted in 2023 and 2026 confirmed the occurrence of F. albicostatus in Hakodate Bay, the southern end of Hokkaido, Japan, across the Tsugaru Strait, thereby extending the northern limit of its known distribution. A line transect survey conducted in May 2026 recorded seven living individuals within an area of 128 m. F. albicostatus was rare on the mid-high shores, accounting for only 2% of all barnacle individuals in a quadrat survey. The basal diameter of the living individuals ranged from 0.76 to 1.23 cm, and all individuals possessed ovaries. Based on characteristics of both morphological and COI gene, the specimens were identified as F. albicostatus, and belonged to the same haplotype of populations that are present in Honshu Island. The establishment of F. albicostatus in Hokkaido suggests an ongoing northward range shift of this warm-water species, with the potential for further expansion under continued ocean warming.

Untargeted metabolomics offers a powerful lens for quantifying high-dimensional phenotypic variation within and among species in nature, but has yet to be widely adopted in evolutionary ecology. Some important initial questions are whether metabolome composition differs among populations, and to what extent such variation is genetic or plastic. Here, we use untargeted liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry to characterize the relative abundance of 5,939 molecular features of the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) liver metabolome. Native lake populations differ in metabolome composition, reflecting effects of sex, size, geography, and population ecotype (benthic versus limnetic). Stickleback from these lakes were translocated to found new populations in nine recently fishless lakes, permuting fish ecotypes across benthic and limnetic lake habitats. Several generations later, metabolomes in these experimental populations reflect effects both of their genetic ancestry (e.g., taurocholic acid, a cholane steroid bile acid, was elevated in limnetic-ancestries), as well as their present habitat (e.g., acylcarnitines). Additionally, ecotypes transplanted into a habitat to which they were maladapted exhibited a distinctive metabolomic profile. We conclude that stickleback exhibit both heritable and plastic among-population differences in liver metabolome, which could represent an important phenotypic basis of rapid evolution, population divergence, and perhaps local adaptation.

Freshwater monitoring programmes like the European Unions Water Framework Directive (WFD) provide a wealth of data on European lake status, including water quality and macrophytes (aquatic plants) as critical habitat features that support health of humans and wildlife. Easier WFD data access can enable external management and research to better safeguard human and natural freshwater use. We demonstrate a replicable workflow to easily download and process multi-year (2007-2024) observations of lake macrophytes (425 sites) and complementary water quality variables (202 sites) from Swedish WFD data. Then, we illustrate the value of improved data access to address ecological questions that drive conservation, investigating how spatial scales influence macrophyte richness and associated water quality relationships using a spatial random intercept model. Decomposing the spatial intercept links small scales (<10 km) to site-level gradients and large scales (>100 km) to biogeographical drivers. Stochastic and environmentally-structured processes coexisted at intermediate scales (10-100 km). Adding water quality rarely improved overall predictive performance of macrophyte diversity models but consistently influences the role of different spatial scales. Water quality variables showed consistent spatially structured variation at intermediate scales and unique spatial patterns in tandem, overlapping with large-scale biogeographical influences. Altogether, we show context-dependencies for spatial model interpretation and provide guidance in accounting for spatial confounding to improve inferential and predictive performance. Our workflow and results show a clear way forward for accessing high-quality macrophyte and water quality data sets and their utility for addressing ecological questions that guide macrophyte protection under the WFD. HighlightsO_LIyears Swedish of macrophyte and water quality monitoring data were extracted. C_LIO_LIrichness showed scale-specific patterns linked to geographic gradients. C_LIO_LIbest predictive models for richness had no water quality at all. C_LIO_LIoverlap in their spatial scales and must be carefully separated. C_LIO_LIpen access data and multiscale analysis can apply to many ecological questions. C_LI

This study investigates changes in habitat connectivity and meta-ecosystem resilience between 1817 and 2022 along a 150 km section of a large European river (Danube) and its adjacent floodplains. The analysis was based on a time series of functional habitat networks (graphs) constructed from historical records and remote sensing data, integrating habitat suitability and dispersal modes of functional organism groups. The results indicate that overall habitat availability declined by about 50% since 1817, leading to the near-complete loss of functional connectivity among dynamic habitats by 1910. Less dynamic habitats persisted or expanded but became functionally less connected. Connectivity-based habitat classification further revealed four distinct functional connectivity clusters and the near-complete loss of an originally dominant, dynamic, and highly connected habitat type. Furthermore, the results indicated a fundamental loss of meta-ecosystem resilience. This development was reflected by increased spatial modularity among functionally similar habitats and by reduced layer dissimilarity and structural robustness in multilayer networks representing the spatial habitat structure and functional habitat connectivity across different functional organism groups.

The non-indigenous brown macroalga Rugulopteryx okamurae has emerged as one of the most aggressive marine invaders in European waters, deeply altering benthic communities and causing severe socioeconomic impacts. While its expansion has been extensively documented along the southern Iberian Peninsula, understanding the dynamics of its northward range expansion along the Spanish Mediterranean coast remains critical for coastal management. This study documents the first formal record of R. okamurae in Calpe (Alicante), representing its current northernmost distribution limit within the Comunitat Valenciana. Sampling was conducted through an initial opportunistic scuba diving observation along the surrounding waters of the Penyal dIfac Natural Park, followed by targeted underwater surveys and an ad hoc inspection of commercial bottom-trawling nets drying at the port of Calpe during June 2026. Morphological and anatomical identification was confirmed through cross-sections of the thallus under optical microscopy, revealing the presence of both the thick and intermediate morphotypes of the species. The collected specimens were found either entangled within a native photophilic algal canopy in shallow waters or recovered from deeper offshore fishing grounds. Given the absence of records in the area during 2023-2025 surveys, these findings suggest either a very recent front-wave colonization event or a contribution from nearby, yet undetected, established patches, driven by secondary local dispersal mechanisms such as drifting fragments and explicitly highlighting commercial fishing activities as an active vector. Furthermore, considering that the species was recorded within a marine protected area and deeper environments, these results highlight a potential ecological threat to local benthic ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need f or competent authorities to implement spatiotemporal monitoring and public awareness campaigns to prevent the definitive establishment of this invader.

Knowledge regarding variation in habitat use among individuals is crucial for understanding population dynamics and for management and conservation measures. This is especially important for diadromous fishes that shift between habitats, being affected by external pressures and environmental change in different habitats over ontogeny. Herer, we assessed individual variation in habitat use of European eel along a salinity gradient, ranging from fully marine to freshwater in northern Europe, using otolith microchemistry data from >3600 eel together with established time-series segmentation and clustering methods. We show that eel display high degree of individual variation in habitat use. Assigned life-histories included coastal resident, freshwater resident, and coastal and freshwater habitat shifting individuals. Coastal resident eels were observed in a large range of salinities. Given the widespread occurrence of migration barriers in freshwater, it is unknown whether the coastal resident eel preferred that habitat, or if it was the only available habitat for them. Our findings nonetheless highlight the need to include coastal habitats when assessing population development and silver eel production of the critically endangered European eel.

Understanding how habitat connectivity shapes biodiversity remains a major ecological challenge. In particular, the roles of connectivity and ecological heterogeneity on co-variation in plant species diversity and intraspecific genetic diversity is not understood. We combined species distribution modelling, resistance-to-movement mapping, landscape connectivity analysis and population genomics to investigate diversity patterns in three wet meadow herbs, Scorzonera humilis, Oenanthe peucedanifolia and Lychnis flos-cuculi, and their surrounding plant communities. Genetic diversity patterns differed strongly among co-occurring species. Connectivity metrics explained genetic diversity only in O. peucedanifolia, and environmental drivers of genetic diversity were highly species specific. Importantly, genetic diversity changed with the presence of some species in the community, but it was consistently unrelated to indicators of local plant community diversity. Overall, the processes shaping within-species biodiversity may differ fundamentally from those structuring habitat connectivity and plant species communities, with important implications for conservation.

A majority of stream restoration efforts in central Europe focus on streams that are less than five meters wide. Restoration aims to increase structural complexity, thereby enhancing habitat heterogeneity, promoting biodiversity, and reestablishing aquatic-terrestrial linkages that can drive responses in adjacent terrestrial communities. However, the effects of small stream restoration on terrestrial biodiversity remain poorly understood because research focuses mainly on large rivers. Here, we investigated the effects of restoration on the structural complexity of the stream channel as well as the terrestrial habitat and plant diversity on a local and landscape scale across 55 small streams in an agricultural landscape. We compared restored stream sections with non-restored ones that were similar to the conditions before restoration. We also assessed how restored sections changed over time since restoration. Restored stream sections showed a higher stream structural complexity and habitat diversity, both of which are targets of active restoration measures. Restoration also increased riparian plant diversity, both directly and indirectly through structural complexity and habitat diversity. Although time since restoration did not influence structural complexity, it drove successional changes in plant communities that became increasingly associated with wetland habitat conditions. Our results demonstrate that small stream restoration effectively increases floodplain habitat and plant diversity in agricultural landscapes, primarily by enhancing water availability in the floodplain. Restoration actions on small streams support biodiversity if they improve stream channel complexity, connect the stream with its floodplain, and create floodplain habitats.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) has emerged as a promising tool for estimating fish abundance, yet linking eDNA concentration to true density remains a significant challenge in seasonal systems, where the signal is strongly influenced by temperature. We investigated whether eDNA can serve as an abundance index for three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in four coastal bays of the Baltic Sea (5.7-20.5{degrees}C, April-July 2023), by pairing eDNA sampling with two trap types of contrasting catchability. Light traps capture fish by phototactic attraction during darkness, so their catchability is driven primarily by night duration rather than temperature, while benthic traps respond to temperature through the same activity-driven mechanism as eDNA production. The temperature sensitivity of eDNA estimated from field data was far higher than physiological expectation (Q10 = 12.4, against a maximum metabolic rate benchmark of Q10 = 3.5), indicating that the field temperature signal reflects ecological change in addition to metabolism. We then compared how well three eDNA predictors tracked a combined trap-based abundance index: uncorrected eDNA, eDNA corrected with the temperature response constrained to the laboratory metabolic rate (a first-principles correction), and eDNA corrected with the response estimated from the field data. Uncorrected and first-principles-corrected eDNA were both strong predictors of abundance (standardised slopes of 0.45 and 0.43), whereas the field-corrected predictor was not (0.08). Uncorrected and first-principles-corrected eDNA performed comparably because temperature and abundance increased together over the season; the first-principles correction is nonetheless preferable, as it remains reliable when this covariation is unknown a priori. We conclude that estimating a temperature correction from field data should be avoided in seasonal eDNA monitoring, because it removes the abundance signal together with the temperature effect and assumes a stability in abundance that cannot be verified without independent reference data.

Microorganisms are the key drivers of carbon cycling in coastal marine sediment ecosystems, significantly influencing carbon storage and release during Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis cultivation. This study employed 16S rRNA sequencing, a high-throughput qPCR chip, and carbon isotope labeling to assess the impact of G. lemaneiformis cultivation on carbon cycling processes in coastal sediments. A comparative analysis was conducted between cultivated zones (GZ) of G. lemaneiformis and adjacent control zones (CZ). The results indicated that macroalgae cultivation significantly modified sediment-seawater exchange dynamics and accelerated carbon cycling within coastal marine sediment ecosystems. Furthermore, G. lemaneiformis cultivation increased the abundance of genes linked to polysaccharide degradation and carbon fixation pathways, thereby enhancing carbon cycling efficiency. The ecosystem multifunctional index, calculated based on carbon fixation gene abundance, was significantly higher in GZ compared to CZ. Incubation experiments using 13C-NaHCO3 demonstrated that cultivation markedly elevated the carbon fixation rate of sediment, emphasizing a higher potential for carbon sequestration in sedimentary environments cultivated with macroalgae. Additionally, cultivation significantly altered sediment microbial communities, simplifying their structural complexity. Key microbial taxa identified via k-core species analysis--including Subgroup10 of Desulfobacterota and MBNT15, correlated strongly with carbon fixation rates, indicating their pivotal roles in sediment carbon cycling processes. This study provides critical insights into how large-scale macroalgae cultivation influences coastal carbon dynamics and informs strategies for optimizing carbon management in aquaculture ecosystems.

O_LISpawning salmon transport marine-derived nutrients (MDN) into riparian forests, influencing soil, plant, and animal communities, yet their effects on fungal communities remain poorly understood. C_LIO_LIWe used DNA metabarcoding to examine fungal responses to three spatial patterns of salmon-derived nitrogen (N) in southwest Alaska: (i) patchy inputs from wildlife-deposited carcasses, (ii) a 21-year carcass relocation experiment, and (iii) natural N gradients with distance from streams. C_LIO_LIDecomposing carcasses increased saprotrophic fungal diversity, identifying taxa responsible for salmon carcass decomposition. Long-term carcass relocation reduced diversity of medium-distance fringe ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), whereas recent, patchy carcass inputs increased diversity of both medium-distance fringe and long-distance EMF--guilds often associated with low-nutrient environments. Along natural stream N gradients, EMF responses varied markedly within functional guilds and genera, revealing unexpected variation in N sensitivity among closely related taxa. C_LIO_LIPulsed, spatially heterogeneous nutrient inputs enhanced diversity of typically nitrophobic EMF, likely reflecting their capacity to maintain extensive mycelial networks, exploit nutrient hotspots, and mobilize organic N and phosphorus. The diversity of responses along natural N gradients suggests that mechanisms linking EMF traits to nutrient acquisition and tolerance remain unresolved. Our findings emphasize the importance of linking fungal community composition with functional attributes and nutrient dynamics. C_LI

Rock surface weathering is a critical element in the process of early soil formation, in which lichens are thought to play a significant role. Crustose lichens, with a large area of rock-surface contact, are generally considered more influential in rock weathering, while foliose and fruticose growth forms, with more developed three-dimensional structure and less rock-surface contact, are rarely considered in this context. Here, we test the extent to which all three growth forms contribute to granitic rock surface weathering in Maritime Antarctic ecosystems, by quantifying rock hardness beneath foliose (n = 2 species), fruticose (n = 2) and crustose lichens (n= 5). Our data confirm that foliose lichens reduced rock surface hardness by 9%, to a lesser extent than crustose and foliose lichens (40% and 31% reduction, respectively). To disentangle whether these effects result from lichen-induced weathering or lichen preference for pre-weathered rock, we also analyzed a dated deglaciation sequence on granitic rocks from the Morteratsch Glacier forefield in the Swiss Alps. At this location, the impact of crustose lichens on rock substrate hardness generally increased with time since exposure from glacial retreat and with lichen thallus size. We conclude that lichen presence on rock surfaces significantly reduces rock hardness, with crustose lichens having a greater impact than foliose and fruticose forms, highlighting the potential role of lichens of all three growth forms in driving substrate breakdown and shaping early-stage ecosystem processes in polar and alpine regions.

Surface waters in urban watersheds receive episodic inputs of wastewater, runoff, and road-salt residues during spring, yet the contribution of these short hydrological windows to antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) loading remains poorly resolved. Weekly samples were collected from offshore and nearshore sites in the Detroit River, a Great Lakes transboundary connecting channel, from February to December 2025. Five clinically relevant ARGs encoding resistance to carbapenems, methicillin, and colistin, alongside the fecal marker pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), were quantified by qPCR and paired with ten conventional water-quality variables. blaNDM, mcr-1, and blaVIM-7 were not detected while blaKPC occurred as discrete pulses. One week (5 May) accounted for 37.2% of annual offshore blaKPC loading, and three weeks in late April to early May accounted for 72.8%, with peak concentrations reaching 5.4 x 10E3 and 7.2 x 10E3 copies/L. mecA was detected in nearly all samples without a dominant pulse. PMMoV normalization showed blaKPC did not vary seasonally (Kruskal-Wallis p = 0.198), consistent with diluted wastewater during spring precipitation events rather than an emergent source. mecA/PMMoV varied seasonally (p = 0.003) and was lowest in spring, implicating non-wastewater inputs in summer and autumn. Seven water-quality variables were significantly elevated during blaKPC pulse weeks. PCA distinguished pulse from background conditions, explaining 81.3% of variance. A random forest classifier achieved leave-one-out AUC of 0.917; ROC AUC reached 0.943 for total phosphorus, 0.924 for chloride, and 0.974 for the multivariate model. These results demonstrate that blaKPC and mecA operate through distinct source pathways and that routine water-quality monitoring can flag elevated blaKPC risk without additional sampling infrastructure.